It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
