Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
